Two weeks ago, in an unprecedented move, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to remove Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) from the role of Speaker, and since that time has not been able to elect a replacement.
House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) is the current Republican nominee for speaker. Last Friday—a day after House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) withdrew his name from nomination after defeating Jordan in an earlier internal vote—Jordan secured the support of 124 of the 221 House Republicans to be the nominee; however, troubling for his bid was that in a follow-up “validation vote” only 152 Republicans said they would support him—with 55 declaring they would not support him.
Jordan mounted an aggressive campaign over the weekend to convert Republicans who opposed him, but after two rounds of voting (yesterday and today), Jordan is still well short of the votes needed to be elected. In the vote yesterday, 20 Republicans went on record against Jordan, and this afternoon 22 Republicans went on record against him. Despite this, Jordan is expected to push for another vote to win the speakership.
How Could this End?
- House Elects a Republican Speaker
Republicans could ultimately elect Jordan speaker or identify another candidate. Several lawmakers have been mentioned as possible speaker nominees: Reps. Tom Cole (R-OK), Rep Frank Lucas (R-OK), and Rep Mike Johnson (R-LA). However, they would have to agree to be put up as the Speaker candidate and would likely need assurance that they would get the vote on the floor. This was a similar path to the election of Speaker Paul Ryan, who reluctantly agreed to the position in 2015, after Speaker John Boehner announced his plans to leave and then-Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy could not get enough votes to be speaker.
- House Elects a Speaker Pro Tempore
Several House Republicans are pushing to expand the powers of the current Speaker Pro Tempore, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC). McHenry is currently limited solely to duties that are deemed “necessary and appropriate” for the purpose of electing a new speaker, and as such, legislation is unable to be brought to the floor under the current rules. He was named Speaker Pro Tempore by McCarthy, but if he were instead to be elected as Speaker Pro Tempore, he would have similar powers as an elected Speaker of the House, and the House would be able to operate normally. The Speaker Pro Tempore can be elected for an amount of time or until the next Speaker is elected (a set amount of time is more likely). Several moderate Democrats have signaled to Republicans that they will help elect a Republican Speaker Pro Tempore with some conditions. More likely, Democratic leadership will negotiate a deal in exchange for supporting McHenry as elected Speaker Pro Tempore.
- House Forms a Consensus Government
This is unlikely, but it would effectively change the rules of the House to form a power-sharing agreement between Democrats and Republicans, which would change the Rules package, committee ratios, and offices, among many other things. Several moderate Republicans have already signaled they are open to discussions for a consensus government. Power-sharing arrangements have been used three separate times in the U.S. Senate with an equally divided split between the parties (1881, 1954, and 2001). And it has been in place in state governments already this year: In Alaska both chambers selected bipartisan governing coalitions; in Pennsylvania the House was led temporarily with an independent speaker; and in Ohio moderate Republicans joined with Democrats to elect a centrist Republican speaker.
- Continue Voting for Speaker Until one is Elected
This option would continue the House operations to its current limited form of only being able to vote on speaker nominations until a candidate wins the majority of votes cast. This would be the same paralysis that the House experienced at the beginning of the term when it took 15 rounds to elect Speaker McCarthy, and no legislative business could be conducted. This could have disastrous consequences if it continues for several weeks, particularly with the current Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund government agencies due to expire on November 17, after which a government shutdown would occur.
As the House continues to determine its next step, the Senate is operating normally and taking up legislative actions. This includes working on an Emergency Supplemental Package (primarily to provide aid to Israel and Ukraine), and a new CR to fund the government beyond the current November 17 deadline. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) indicated that the Senate will move on a likely bipartisan package without the House. This would then pressure the House to elect a Speaker as quickly as possible so they can also pass the package, with little to no legislative input or negotiations.
Impact to Senior Living
Without a functioning House of Representatives, no legislation can be brought to the floor for consideration or a vote. This will stall the progress that Argentum has been making on several priorities, including H.R. 1815, a bill to establish a pilot program for Veterans to choose assisted living instead of skilled nursing, and H.R. 1477, a bill to allow more Americans to access education savings accounts to pay for career development programs. It could also delay momentum on the reintroduction of the SENIOR Act, and a bill providing grants to help foster intergenerational activities in assisted living communities. Additionally, Argentum’s remains deeply concerned about potential cuts to workforce development programs that were included in the House appropriations process.
It's important to note that while the U.S. House is not operating normally during this process, that doesn’t mean the legislative process or our advocacy stops. Legislation will continue to be introduced and we are working with lawmakers to advance key workforce and appropriations legislation. We urge all Argentum Advocates to remain engaged and ready to participate in grassroots efforts and other ways to help get our voices heard.
Note: This blog post was adapted from a memo distributed by a Congressional office.
