Voters are headed to the polls today in what is expected to be one of the highest-turnout elections in recent memory. While it may take time to determine the winners, what we do already know is that the elections will bring a new administration with a new agenda, new agency heads, and new Committee chairs in Congress.
To help make sense of it all and the impact on senior living policy, Argentum will be hosting a special post-election briefing next Wednesday, November 13 at 2:00 p.m. ET to review the results and look ahead to opportunities to advance our public policy priorities.
The biggest legislative opportunity in 2025 will be the expiration of significant portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA, or “Trump Tax Cuts”), including opportunities to advance Argentum-led proposals on workforce programs and policies to increase affordability of long-term care. Argentum's annual Public Policy Institute, in Washington, D.C. next March 12-13, will be a critical event to promote senior living solutions for consideration in next year's legislative packages, regardless of who wins the presidency or control of Congress.
Potential expectations for various scenarios and Argentum’s opportunities:
Harris presidency
- w/ Democratic Congress: Expansion of long-term care benefits through "Medicare-at-Home" proposal, opportunity to ensure benefits are available to senior living residents and promote senior living as home and its value; focus on housing and workforce issues; expected increase of regulatory activity, including oversight of private equity.
- w/ split Congress: Potential bipartisan efforts to address transparency throughout health care; however, gridlock may hamper most legislation from advancing.
- w/ Republican Congress: Regulatory activity would be significant driver of administration policy; compromise effort on TCJA renewal led by Republicans in Congress; gridlock in Congress would hamper most legislation from advancing (similar to the past two years, and majority of the Obama administration).
Trump presidency
- w/ Republican Congress: Significant push for renewal of TCJA provisions with opportunity to include new senior living workforce programs, housing policy, long-term care affordability or caregiver tax credits; efforts to overturn Biden-administration regulations through the Congressional Review Act, which permits Congress to overturn recent regulations with a simple majority in both chambers and the president's signature.
- w/ split Congress: Compromise effort on TCJA renewal (potential for renewed effort on Ron Wyden and Jason Smith proposal from this year); potential for some consensus on deregulation, however, gridlock may hamper most legislation from advancing.
- w/ Democratic Congress: Regulatory activity would be significant driver of administration policy and there would be a move for deregulation, including significant use of executive actions; gridlock in Congress would hamper most legislation from advancing (similar to 2019-2020).
